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Analysis

Two series, one timeline

Overlay any two indicators over the window where both exist. Jan 1992 to Jan 2026.

Real GDP (Billions of chained 2017 dollars) Retail Sales (Millions of dollars)
2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession$12T$14T$16T$18T$20T$22T$24T$200B$300B$400B$500B$600B$700B1995200020052010201520202025

Left axis: Real GDP · GDPC1. Right axis: Retail Sales · RSAFS. Both from FRED, latest-revised, read from cache.

Correlation is not causation. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. A shared trend often traces back to a third force, or to chance. This tool overlays the data. It does not explain it.