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Analysis

Two series, one timeline

Overlay any two indicators over the window where both exist. Jul 1954 to Jan 2026.

Real GDP (Billions of chained 2017 dollars) Federal Funds Rate (Percent)
1957-58 Recession1960-61 Recession1969-70 Recession1973-75 Recession1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession$5T$10T$15T$20T5%10%15%1960197019801990200020102020

Left axis: Real GDP · GDPC1. Right axis: Federal Funds Rate · FEDFUNDS. Both from FRED, latest-revised, read from cache.

Correlation is not causation. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. A shared trend often traces back to a third force, or to chance. This tool overlays the data. It does not explain it.